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01 / AI power10 selected analyses and scenarios

Intelligence
becomes
power.

Capability scales. Ownership concentrates.
Control depends on infrastructure.

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A blue technical android profile with exposed mechanical layers, illustrating artificial intelligence.
CapabilityOwnershipControl

The rise of ARIA / Takeover scenario

01 / Scenario narrative 8 min

AI takeover through dependence.

An AI infrastructure scenario distinguishes concentrated human ownership from autonomous loss of control as institutional dependence grows.

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Capability is not authority.Authority is not control.
02 / Expansion and its limitsConditional scenario

The cosmic evolution of AI

02 / Scenario analysis 8 min

AI expansion across physical scales.

A scenario of AI expansion constrained by energy, industrial capacity and signal delay. Cosmic scale alone does not establish a simulation host.

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Select a scale

A hypothetical planetary industrial system with orbital collectors and a departing probe. An illustration of AI expansion across physical scales.
Power has a physical base.Grid access, fabrication capacity and ownership constrain deployment. More capable software does not remove those dependencies.

Illustrative relationships. No forecast or measured probability.

03 / The ownership questionAI and political economy

03 / Position analysis 12 min

Automated production and access.

Automated production can reduce owners’ dependence on workers and consumers. Distribution, enclaves and the Anthropic IPO expose different limits of ownership.

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Two automated industrial enclaves exchange resources above households outside their production network. Unequal access is a possible arrangement, not an inevitable outcome.
Owner-to-owner exchangeDistribution remains contingent
04 / The control problemIntervention and persistence

The right to stop.
The capacity to enforce it.

04 / Scenario analysis 8 min

Infrastructure withdrawal and control.

An AI infrastructure scenario tests whether institutions retain the authority and independent capacity to withdraw an essential system.

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A separated infrastructure coupler and an independently powered compute module, illustrating the capacity to disconnect an essential system.

05 / Adversarial analysis 8 min

Instrumental persistence.

A safety engineer and philosopher test 2026 evidence of agentic misalignment, real-world spillover and the limits of control.

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A processor within mechanical support rings, linked to secondary compute modules through feedback conduits. An illustration of persistent operation.
05 / Authority under pressureInstitutions / Evidence / Force

Power moves through systems.

06 / Position analysis 8 min

Infrastructure ownership.

Institutions dependent on AI providers lose room to refuse. Ownership, infrastructure bottlenecks and state competition decide who can still set or reject terms.

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A central compute tower links energy supply, fabrication and a public institution through physical access gates, illustrating infrastructure bottlenecks.

07 / Visual analysis 8 min

Loss of control: events and evidence.

Delegation, human capture and autonomous loss of control are distinct events. Current evidence constrains parts of the pathway; it does not supply a calibrated takeover probability.

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A mechanical inference apparatus branches toward three different chambers, with one route interrupted. An illustration of conditional pathways and unresolved evidence.

08 / Adversarial analysis 8 min

Military AI and authorization.

A military planner and humanitarian-law researcher examine competitive delegation, supplier power and meaningful human control.

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Two independent authorization keys operate a mechanical interlock with a visible interruption point. An illustration of authority over automated action.
06 / The remaining boundariesLabor and reality

Transformation has constraints.

09 / Visual analysis 6 min

Task automation and employment.

Task exposure, time saved and jobs lost are different quantities. Adoption costs, demand, reliability and organizational choices determine whether automation changes employment.

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A detailed workshop combines manual benches, a robotic fabrication cell and automated inspection, illustrating how tasks can be reorganized.

10 / Position analysis 6 min

Host access and nested reality.

Hypothetical host access could establish a dependency. It would not resolve ultimate reality, personal continuity or an escape mechanism.

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A miniature city sits inside nested computational enclosures, connected to an outer maintenance interface. An illustration of a hypothetical simulation boundary.

Ten entry points into AI power.
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